Game of Thrones Theorycrafting: Southron Ambitions 

“…Rickard Stark had great ambitions too. Southron ambitions…”

Tower of Joy flashback having been filmed this week, and with both the North and the Riverlands looking like they’ll figure prominently in

Season 6, it’s time to take a look at the next big fan theory having to do with the Great Houses of Westeros. The last theory we examined, the Grand Northern Conspiracy, dealt with the Northern Lords and their plot to reinstall the Starks in Winterfell, and I firmly believe we will see some of it come to fruition in Season 6. It’s also important to remember that every House not from the North is considered a Southron House.

Today we are going to talk about Southron Ambitions. In his blog,

discusses how Lord Rickard Stark (Ned’s father) wanted to marry members of his family into Southron Houses to shore up his alliances with the big players in Westoers. We get our first hint of this from Lady Barbrey Dustin in

. Despite being from the North, Lady Dustin despises the Starks because Lord Rickard refused to let her marry his eldest son, Brandon, even though the two had some sort of an affair. Then, once Brandon and Lord Rickard were murdered at King Aerys’ court, Lady Barbrey thought she would have the chance to marry Ned, but the second eldest son of House Stark chose to honor the marriage pact his father had made for Brandon and married Catelyn Tully instead.

Lady Barbrey was then betrothed to Lord Willam Dustin, a bannerman of House Stark and a companion to Ned Stark, who was now the Lord of Winterfell. Lord Dustin was one of six companions who accompanied Ned to the Tower of Joy to help rescue Ned’s sister Lyanna. Sadly, Lord Dustin died in the ensuing skirmish with three Kingsguard knights. Ned did not return his bones to Lady Barbrey, and she has always resented the Starks for it.

Another important part of the Southron Ambitions puzzle are the House Maesters. Lord Rickard’s trusted Maester, Walys, is hated by Lady Barbrey and is said to have instigated the entire Southron Ambitions plot by suggesting the Southron marriages to Lord Rickard. This irked Lady Barbrey so much that she distrusts all Maesters now, and calls them ‘Grey Rats.’

In his essay, Stefan Sasse notes that many of the Lords of the Great Houses were friends:

“There are several great lords, all knowing each other better than usual because they fought together in the War of the Ninepenny Kings a few years prior. Jon Arryn, Steffon Baratheon, Rickard Stark, Hoster Tully and Tywin Lannister are all war buddies. With the exception of the latter, they seem to have taken kind of a friendship out of this war.”

This is very important to the Southron Ambitions ambitions theory, as the companionship between Lords Stark, Arryn, Baratheon, and Tully appeared to go beyond friendship: in time, it started to look more like an alliance, an alliance that would only be strengthened by inter-marriage. And what would the Lords of these Great Houses have to ally against in peacetime? How about Aerys “the Mad King” Targaryen, the increasingly unstable ruler of the Seven Kingdoms? The Southron Ambitions theory holds that the Lords wanted Aerys out, and that their network of alliances was an attempt to shore up their political power and pressure Aerys to abdicate his crown to Rhaegar, his much saner son.

Here’s what that network of alliances looked like before Robert’s Rebellion broke out:

Eddard and Robert were best friends being fostered in the Eyrie by Lord Jon Arryn in the Vale, which united Houses Stark, Baratheon, and Arryn.

Brandon Stark was promised to Catelyn Stark in order to unite Houses Stark and Tully.

Robert Baratheon was betrothed to Lyanna Stark in order to unite Houses Stark and Baratheon.

There was one piece missing: Tywin Lannister. If the Lords Stark, Tully, Arryn, and Baratheon could bring the Lannister patriarch into their conspiracy, they would be a mighty force indeed. True, Tywin was Hand of the King, but his relationship with Aerys was strained, and he could probably be won to the other side if wooed. To that end, Lord Hoster Tully began talks to betroth his daughter Lysa to the heir to Casterly Rock, Jaime Lannister. However, Aerys threw a wrench in that plan by making Jaime a member of his Kingsguard, meaning that he could never marry. It’s likely that Aerys knew about some of the plots forming against him, and this move may have been his attempt to keep Tywin out of the network of alliances. If so, it ended up backfiring later.

Now, to understand the cunning and the madness, of Aerys Targaryen, one need look no farther than the Tourney at Harrenhal. Ser Oswell Whent of the Kingsguard, a close friend of Prince Rhaegar Targaryen, convinced his brother Lord Walter Whent to host a grand tournament. It was said that the rewards offered by Lord Walter were three times greater than those offered by Lord Tywin Lannister in the tourney at Lannisport to honor Prince Viserys’ birth. Hundreds of challengers attended, including representative from all the major Houses of Westeros.

According to the theory, Prince Rhaegar knew and supported the conspirators’ plans, and was going to use this great gathering to hash out the details of his rise to kingship. Jaime Lannister was raised to the Kingsguard at the age of 15 at Harrenhal, but his father Lord Tywin did not attend. His relationship with King Aerys had been souring for some time. 

However, after Aerys appointed Jaime Lannister to his Kingsguard, Lord Tywin left the tourney for Casterly Rock in a huff, and the plan was stalled

. WiC commenter Jstar correctly points out that Lord Tywin Lannister did not attend the Tourney at Harrenhal. From

“The king himself was there, with his son the dragon prince. The White Swords had come, to welcome a new brother to their ranks. The storm lord was on hand, and the rose lord as well. The great lion of the rock had quarreled with the king and stayed away, but many of his bannermen and knights attended all the same. ” 

House Tyrell was a known Targaryen loyalist and therefore could not be trusted, and though Maester Walys was a Flowers from the Reach, he did not try to bring House Hightower of Oldtown into the alliance, probably because of House Tyrell.

This is where things began to fall apart for the Southron Ambitions Alliance. With Lord Tywin brooding in Casterly Rock over the loss of his heir (he still had Tyrion, but we all know how Tywin felt about him), the backing of the Westerlands was uncertain. To make an already precarious situation worse, Prince Rhaegar absconded with Lady Lyanna Stark (or the two ran away together, depending on who you believe) to the Tower of Joy in Dorne. Brandon Stark, thinking Rhaegar had taken his sister to King’s Landing, rode to the capital city and demanded the prince come out and fight him for his sister’s freedom and honor. Aerys took this as treason and detained the heir to House Stark, and summoned Lord Rickard to King’s Landing to answer for his son’s crimes against the crown.

Once there, madness took hold of Aerys, and he commanded Lord Rickard to be roasted alive in his armor, while his son Brandon watched helplessly, as he was bound with a cord around his neck and a longsword just out of reach. Brandon strangled himself trying to get to the sword and save his father. King Aerys then demanded that Lord Jon Arryn send the heads of Ned Stark and Robert Baratheon to King’s Landing. Lord Arryn refused, called his banners, and Robert’s Rebellion began. However, the Southron Ambitions Alliance was all but over. Hotter heads (King Aerys, Brandon Stark, Robert Baratheon, and Rhaegar at the Tourney) had prevailed over cooler ones (Rickard Stark, Jon Arryn, Hoster Tully, and Rhaegar at most other times).

Brandon Stark strangles himself while his father burns to death.

With Lord Tywin out and Lord Rickard dead, Lord Hoster made a marriage pact with Lord Arryn for his daughter Lysa’s hand. This united House Tully and House Arryn. The young lord of House Stark honored his father’s pact and married Catelyn Tully, thus uniting Houses Tully and Stark, but instead of five Noble Houses backing a beloved prince’s bid for the throne, they were now three Noble Houses united by marriage, and marching to war. Lord Steffon Baratheon had died at sea, in sight of his home at Storm’s End as his ship sank.

Robert Baratheon defeats Rhaegar Targaryen at the Battle of the Trident

Robert Baratheon, incensed by what he considered a kidnapping and probable rape of Lyanna by Rhaegar, called his banners, as he was the Lord of House Baratheon in the wake of Steffon’s death, and he and his best friend Lord Eddard went to war. When the bulk of the war was over, Ned and his six companions (including Lord Dustin) rode to the Tower of Joy to rescue Lyanna. There Ned met Ser Arthur Dayne, Ser Gerold Hightower, and Ser Oswell Whent, three famed Kingsguard knights who stayed at the Tower of Joy to guard Lady Lyanna, despite their prince dying on the Trident.

Ned brought his sister’s bones home and buried her in the crypts below Winterfell, and there he stayed, in the North. Lord Jon Arryn became Hand of the King to Robert, who took up the crown in place of Aerys. However, the Southron Ambitions Alliance was all but through, and might as well have been buried in the Winterfell crypts alongside Lyanna’s bones.

Next: Game of Thrones’ Wolf Unit In Peñíscola (UPDATE: Varys, Missandei, and Tyrion in the area)

Westeros and Essos, the two continents on which A Song of Ice and Fire and Game of Thrones...

In this week’s edition of Game of Thrones Theorycrafting, we’re going to look at a...

Have you already read all the books and/or don\'t care about spoilers? You can reveal all the spoilers in the comments with the click of a link below.

How is this different from the official version of the events? This doesn’t shed any new light on anything.

I don’t believe the official version of events plainly spells out that 5 noble Houses were trying to band together to supplant Aerys and replace him with his son. Southron Ambitions is barely mentioned like once in ADWD.

Meanwhile, Littlefinger is sitting back watching all of this go on (from the Vale?), getting turned down by Catelyn, being obsessed over by Lysa and learning how to play the game of thrones so he can stir the pot straight to the top! And a story is born…

Great recap, very well summarised – but this is exactly what happened, not really a new revelation.

The really revelation were to know why THE Kings guard were not with his king?

Why does they obbey to their prince, and not to their king. Or is it possible that they were really under the king Command and not THE prince?

Is it possible that three of the most honorable knigths of their time doesn’t keep their promise as kingguards to obbey and protect to their king? I don’t Think so…

The Kingsguard are sworn to protect the royal family. Mainly the King, but their protection extends to his immediate family as well. Rhaegar was next in the line of succession, and those three Kingsguard were said to be his close friends.

Now, it’s hinted that Rhaegar told them to stay at the ToJ to protect not just Lyanna (because why keep three of the most badass warriors in all the land guarding some rando chick), because she was preggors with his child, and therefore the heir to the Targaryen crown and Iron Throne. So, by extension, the three Kingsguard stayed at the ToJ to protect another member of the royal family…Jon!

Very True, But Aegon would have been his Heir. I think most people feel that Lyanna and thus Jon were being protected because Rhaegar was convinced his second son would be TPTWP.

“The king himself was there, with his son the dragon prince. The White Swords had come, to welcome a new brother to their ranks. The storm lord was on hand, and the rose lord as well. The great lion of the rock had quarreled with the king and stayed away, but many of his bannermen and knights attended all the same. ” ASoS, Bran II (KotLT tale)

Jaime’s appointment to the KG was announced before the Harrenhal tourney, in the Red Keep.

Yet Grand Maester Pycelle tells us that when Aerys II announced Ser Jaime’s appointment from the Iron Throne, his lordship went to one knee and thanked the king for the great honor shown to his house. Then, pleading illness, Lord Tywin asked the king’s leave to retire as Hand.

King Aerys was delighted to oblige him. Lord Tywin accordingly surrendered his chain of office and retired from court, returning to Casterly Rock with his daughter. – TWoIaF, Aerys II

While you are correct about Lord Tywin not being there (has been corrected in the piece and you have been credited for bringing the mistake to my attention, so thank you). Jaime was raised to the Kingsguard at the tourney. He was 15.

In TWoIaF, we find out that Prince Aerys Targaryen, Tywin Lannister, and Steffon Barartheon were close friends, and fought together in TWot9PK. I don’t know of any source that states that Hoster Tully, Jon Arryn, or Rickard Stark were in any way close to the other three mentioned. (We know Hoster fought in the war, and rewarded Petyr Baelish’s future father with an offer to foster his son as a reward for some service.) If such a source exists, please cite it. If you can’t do that (or Sasse can’t), we have to conclude that Sasse is guilty of sloppy work.

And Jstar is of course correct about Tywin never being at the tourney. In fact, the list of those not attending the tourney (Tywin Lannister, Rickard Stark, and probably Jon Arryn and Hoster Tully) is more interesting than the list of those who attended.

I agree why were the 3 kingsguard at the toj? Were they guarding the future prince or allpuances between house stark and targeryan . After tourney after rhaegar crowned lyanna the love and beauty crown of blue winter roses brandan her oldest and heir to winterfell had to be restrained from consulting the prince robert supposely laughed it of but people close to him said it broke him and began the hatered he had for rhaegar for taking lyanna

I know this is very negative but I have to say it: Does anyone else, other than me, think the Stark children didn’t age well? Rickon and Bran both grew up to look like dorky, odd teens(as most mid-teens look). I know it’s shallow and wrong to judge by appearance, but damn. Sansa looks like a manly woman(again, hate me but it’s true), she even has a very deep voice and towers over some of the shorter actors. She’s not the extreme beauty the book and show make her out to be. And the weirdest looking and shaped? Arya. Once again, Williams just didn’t age well. Arya is supposed to be a hidden beauty, pretty in a tomboy way. Instead, we get a thick, stumpy looking thing. They just don’t fit the bill of the Stark children in the books very well. It doesn’t help that every one of them, maybe not Williams, stinks at acting. That only makes it worse. I was very much hoping that they recast Bran and Rickon. Both look like dweeby, awkward teens. Bran and Rickon in the books are both still very young kids, not total dorks. Its just going to be hard to enjoy the North Remembers when that awkward looking Rickon rallies them. Its going to look more like kids roleplaying World of Warcraft. Again, let the hate roll. You know you agree with moi.

I think the stark kids are just fine. Many teens look awkward at that age.

Surely most of the characters in the show are different compared to how they are described in the books?

Thanks for perpetuating the typical American societal norm that unless you are gorgeous and talented, you should not have a place in acting or entertainment media. Rather Shallow in my opinion.

Thankfully Europe and Britain in particular, utilize talented actors regardless of sex appeal. I think that is one of the reason the BBC has a great coterie of actors and actresses, whereas many American actors/actresses seem to be of the less talented, more Nip-Tucked variety.

Yes we have seen all the Stark kids go through that mid teen awkward stage. And? When I watch Season 1 and 2 I see how much Sophie Turner has changed into a beautiful young lady from a coltish girl. Yes she is tall and slim, but I never thought that was considered a bad thing. Yes she towers over many of the male actors… so what! She looks good doing it!

The photos of the Emmy’s show how gorgeous Gwendoline Christie can look when she is dressed appropriately and she is 6’3!

Maisie is more short and has an hourglass figure, I’m sure she will blossom into a beautiful young lady as well, even though she is only 5′ 1″. We should be stating that all body types are beautiful, not slagging on them.

As for the boys, most boys do go through that geeky awkward phase… so what? To recast them for “better looking” actors would be a travesty. Is that too much honesty in GoT? We can show blood, gore, rape, dragons and white walkers… But God forbid any Dorky Teens get in here!

I actually think one can argue the opposite of what Mrs. Foxtrot does. That in fact several actors are more attractive than their respective characters, according to the books.

That goes for my personal favorite characters Tyrion and Brienne, for example. But on the other hand, Peter Dinklage and Gwendoline Christie have completely made these characters their own with their brilliant performances.

I agree Blue Bard. I could not imagine anyone else playing Tyrion or Brienne. Peter and Gwen have done a phenomenal job.

Agreed rickon is supposed to be wild in the books in the show he’s not bran is like braver and courageous in the the show he’s a pussy rickon is supposely to be a resemblance to his uncle Brandon the wild wolf but he isn’t in the show it’s shit in that way the north remembers is going to happen is there will be a meting called by eighter small jon or greatjon umber and bring rickon in and there they decide to claim rickon the heir of winterfell and the war begins rickon won’t be in season 6 that much

Have you ever heard of punctuation? Your posts are brutally hard to read because it’s like reading the longest sentence ever.

Your posts are mostly informed , but try punctuation. Its invaluable in almost every language.

The big hole in all of this, and in fact in GRRM’s entire story, is the incredulity of Rhaegar. So much ink is invested in building Rhaegar into the potential savior of the dynasty, the sane one who would restore the greatness of his house and lead with leadership, yet he commits the stupidest act imaginable.

Feudalism is based on reciprocation between kings and lords, usually solidified my marriage contracts. For Rhaegar, without warning or explanation, to kidnap the betrothed of a great lord is abject stupidity. He started Robert’s rebellion, and is much more responsible for the fall of his own house than his ostensibly insane father. This act sticks in my craw every time he shows up in the text. If he truly were wise and thoughtful, this notion would never have entered his mind as it is such a failure of a feudal noble’s duty.

This remains, for me anyway, the weakest plot line of ASOIAF.

I agree, it makes ZERO sense for someone who has been described as both wise and gentle. One who would rather play his harp and write poetry than fight, to kidnap and rape a girl of 15 or 17.

Now, there are two stories here with one MAJOR caveat to remember. 1. History is written by the victors — The Targs lost

2. Those still alive who were closest to the Targs claim that Rhaegar loves Lyanna, and she him.

Now for the caveat — This is fantasy. Which is hard to remember with GRRM’s works, because he keeps his fantasy in the realm of possibility, or “low-fantasy”

It was said that Rhaegar was a gentle soul who eschewed sword play for the harp, until he read the prophecy of The Prince that was Promised, then he began to train like a demon to become one of the best swordsmen and mounted knights in all the land.

His wife during the time of the Tourney at Harrenhal was Elia of Dorne, a woman who had given him two children, but had been told that she could have no more or she would die, and she had born many miscarriages.

Here’s the rub: For reasons that have yet to be explained, Rhaegar did NOT believe either of his children to be TPtwP — OR — he was trying to produce a third child, because the dragon must have three heads, another Targaryen prophecy. (One that was brought to fruition with Dany).

So, and according to Barristan Selmy, Rhaegar wooed Lyanna crowning her the Queen of Love and Beauty when he won the tournament at Harrenhal, then we also read from the Reed children (I think during the Knight of the Laughing Tree story) that Rhaegar played his harp for Lyanna and she wept at its beautiful sound. So, we can glean from this that they had begun to court feelings for each other.

We also have clues that Lyanna was no wilting flower. In fact she is described as having the Wolf’s blood in her, as she was wild, and loved to ride horse and play at swords (Much like Arya). In fact, it’s strongly hinted that The Knight of the Laughing Tree was in fact Lyanna underneath the armor (or Howland Reed), and she used her Northern toughness to defeat the squires that had bullied Howland the day before.

Does this sound like a girl that would allow herself to be abducted like some maiden in distress? Not to me!

Anyway, to your main concern, I think Rhaegar was trying to fulfill the Targaryen prophecy of TPtwP and the Dragon must have three heads. He believed that Dragons would be reborn into Westeros if he would but only do his part, and by having a child with Lyanna, a strong and tough girl from a Noble and ancient Northern House that used to rule as Kings in the North, he thought he was doing so. This is where the fantasy part kicks in, and the usual history lesson from our own past gets thrown out the window.

Thanks for the response. Of course it is fantasy, but such incongruities of character are nowhere else to be found in ASOIAF; GRRM doesn’t truck in such things. Characters may change, adapt, grow, switch sides, but they don’t just flip on their heads without proper justification. That’s why Rhaegar’s actions stick out so much for me.

As to Lyanna being a willing participant, it still does not justify his violation of his feudal duties. He was married and she was betrothed. It’s one thing to fool around on the dl, but an open defiance of both alliances is pretty damn serious. Why the Martells were not as (or more) insulted is a question I also have no answer for.

The gambit for the TPtwP, however, was something I had not considered. I will have to chew on that one for a while. Did Rhaegar really believe the others were imminent long before there was any evidence of their return? Hmm.

Anyway, thanks for the best (well, best and only, but pretty damn good) explanation of that that I’ve gotten. I’ve been re-reading the books and its been bugging me.

I think you make excellent points regarding Rhaegar. I hope to see his side of things at some point in a flashback or prequel, as it is only through other’s eyes that we see his story. I agree that his abduction/elopment with Lyanna Stark was the Lynchpin that tore the realm apart and destroyed the Targaryen Dynasty. Was it done for love? Was it done to ensure Prophecy? Was that a sacrifice he was willing to make or only the end result? That is up for debate.

Oberyn is bitter and feels Rhaegar abandoned Elia… Who knows maybe she consented to being a “Sister Wife” to Lyanna if she believed that her son and daughter plus Lyanna’s son would both be 2 heads of the Dragon.

We never actually see Rhaegar, his motivations and actions. Hopefully TOJ will help clear up some of the mythos around him.

I hope we get some information from Rhaegar himself as well. I hate to admit that we usually don’t get those kinds of insightful tidbits from the show though. Which is too bad. I will hope for it and hope for even more in one of GRRMs works!

It’s one thing to fool around on the dl, but an open defiance of both alliances is pretty damn serious. Why the Martells were not as (or more) insulted is a question I also have no answer for.

I like to think that since the Dornish are a bit more “cavalier” about having relations with several partners (Their attitude in general regarding sex and relationships) that Rhaegar having a child with another woman wouldn’t be so taboo… At least to Elia. What if her and her brother shared the same sensibilities? What if Rhaegar and her had a polyamorous relationship?

Good point. And she could’ve supported it even more based on The Red Lady’s point above. Polyamorous relationship beliefs + having prophecy fulfilling heirs/family members might make Elia and other Martells not that upset at Rhaegar. Sounds reasonable to me.

The whole point of the story is that Rhaegar risked the future of his dynasty (and lost) for a greater good – defeating the Others. The PtwP prophecy in all likelihood concerns the individual who will be able to save Westeros from the second Others invasion. It would be absolutely in character for Rhaegar to be willing to sacrifice himself and his family to save Westeros.

Agree 100% with Rhaegar’s actions appearing to be a huge error by Martin. Hopefully a reason will be revealed which will make things copacetic again.

Ok, that photo of “Brandon Stark” being strangled has surfaced here and there. It hails from a deleted scene that showed this event taking place. Does anyone know who is playing Brandon right there? It looks to me like it’s Ned or Sean Bean and they were going to replace Brandon with Ned. Then having Ned view this ugly scene and be released or escape in the shows continuity.

We know they’ve made minor (or major) historical changes like altering the lineage of house Targaryen by making Aerys II the son of Aegon V and removing Jahaerys II, IIRC. Perhaps they planned to change the nature of Brandon’s death or even remove him from the continuity at one point.

Anyway, can anyone tell me with certainty who is in that picture allegedly playing Brandon Stark?

David, Such a fabulous article. Love this stuff. Thanks for the excellent, thought provoking work

As another reason behind Rhaegar defying the alliances and featly, sometimes as much as people know better, they let their private part(s) do the thinking rather than their mind. Don’t think the story being fantasy changes that aspect of humans, at all.

I agree JMP. One of the many reasons that George RR is a God of the pen, is his ability to see the entire human situation. History has shown us time and time again that empires fall because of seductions. I’m not saying that is a bad thing, just a real thing

Anyone else get the feeling that Lady Dustin might not be as anti-Stark as she claims to be? In fact, I think I get the impression that it is all an act. I don’t have my book in front of me, but there are little things with her that gave me the impression that she is playing a role based on her history with the Starks.

CBtheWolf on Game of Thrones Theorycrafting: The Pack Survives

Cyndy on Game of Thrones Theorycrafting: The Pack Survives

The Red Lady on The Small Council: Where in Westeros and Essos would you like to visit that we haven’t been?

An error has occurred, which probably means the feed is down. Try again later.